Kurzgesagt - South Korea is Over · Heppen's Happening

Table of Contents

Recently, the Kurzgesagt channel with 20 million subscribers uploaded a video.

I thought about why this is happening, if it’s true, if there are no alternatives, and what other factors might exist.

Kurzgesagt - South Korea is Over #

The video deeply analyzes the population decline crisis facing Korea.

It warns that if the current low birthrate continues, Korea could face severe economic, social, cultural, and military collapse.

By 2060, issues such as labor shortages necessary for economic system maintenance, reduced social services, and broken cultural traditions may arise due to rapid population decline and aging.

In particular, the decrease in younger generations could lead to decreased social vitality and reduced innovation capabilities.

To overcome this crisis, immediate social change and policy support are urgently needed to increase the birthrate. Awareness and proactive responses to demographic changes are critical.

Let’s first summarize the video content.

1. Population Decline #

For population stabilization, a birthrate of about 2.1 children per woman is needed, but in 2023, Korea's birthrate is historically low at 0.72.
Korea faces a risk of comprehensive collapse economically, socially, and militarily due to its population decline.
By 2060, the Korea we currently know may no longer exist.
Seoul’s birthrate averages 0.55; more than half of women are expected to remain childless, with the other half likely having only one child.
As a result of declining birthrates, after four generations, the number of Koreans will reduce from 100 to approximately 5.

2. Population Projections and Economic Impact #

UN population forecasts have been most accurate in recent years’ low-birthrate scenarios, with Korea’s birthrate declining 8% between 2022 and 2023.
Korea’s population is projected to decrease by 30% by 2060, losing approximately 16 million people.
As the population shrinks, Korea will age, with half of the population expected to be over 65, and children constituting only 1%.
Economic shocks are inevitable due to declining birthrates; 40% of seniors over 65 currently live below the poverty line.
Korea’s pension fund, currently worth $730 billion, is expected to start declining in the 2040s and be depleted by 2050. By 2060, each worker will likely have to support one senior citizen.

3. Korea’s Economic Crisis #

Elderly poverty will become widespread, and many elderly people will have to work but might not find jobs.
By 2060, Korea’s working-age population is expected to shrink from 37 million to 17 million.
Although individual productivity might increase, Korea’s GDP will peak in the 2040s and then enter an economic recession.
The government will inevitably reduce or discontinue essential services due to declining tax revenues.
These economic crises will have severe impacts on Korean society and culture.

Currently, 20% of Koreans live alone, and a similar percentage has no close friends or family.
Half of Koreans aged 70 will have no siblings, and 30% will live without children.
Young adults aged 25 to 35 will constitute only 5% of the population, often without siblings.
This scenario could lead to an epidemic of loneliness among seniors lacking close family, and younger generations lacking friends.
By 2060, the population aged 25 to 45 will shrink to 5.6 million, accounting for just 16% of the total population.

5. Severity of Population Decline #

Even if the birthrate temporarily increases, Korea’s fundamental demographic issues remain unresolved.
By 2060, due to aging, the number of working adults compared to seniors will drastically decrease.
Korea faces significant child-rearing burdens due to high education costs and expensive housing.
Traditional marriage culture leads to low rates of births among single mothers, and limited male participation in domestic work increases women’s burdens.

These factors establish a deep-rooted low birthrate culture, creating severe social crises beyond mere population numbers.

5.1. The Unavoidable Reality of Population Issues #

Once population decline begins, recovery becomes impossible.
Even tripling Korea’s birthrate to 2.1 would still result in labor shortages 60 years later.
Korea must inevitably experience bottlenecks to find a recovery path.
Though pessimistic now, rapid societal changes could potentially restore birthrates long-term.

5.2. Factors Behind South Korea’s Declining Birth Rate #

Although the number of births in 2024 increased by 3% compared to 2023, sustaining this growth requires recognition of South Korea’s current social situation.
South Korea rapidly emerged from poverty, but in the process developed a culture characterized by workaholism and extreme competitiveness.
While the legal working hours are limited to 52 hours per week, many employees perform unpaid overtime, and the government even proposed increasing the legal working hours to 69 hours.
Relatively low wages combined with high living costs, especially real estate prices in major cities, make affordability out of reach for most people.
The cost of private education is exceptionally high, compelling families to spend substantially to send their children to top universities, while South Korea allocates less to family support compared to other affluent nations.
Marriage is practically mandatory for couples intending to start a family, and in 2023, births to unmarried women accounted for only 4.7%.
South Korean men participate the least in household chores and childcare, placing a disproportionate workload on women who strive to maintain their careers.
Many Koreans individually choose not to start families, reflecting a cultural environment that does not adequately support having children.

5.3. The Current Reality of Population Collapse #

Population collapse is ongoing, affecting not only Korea but other nations.
In 2023, birthrates were China 1.0, Italy and Spain 1.2, Germany 1.4, the UK and US 1.6, highlighting global implications.
Public discourse often fails to grasp the seriousness of this issue.
Population decline threatens future generations and the economy but is currently discussed narrowly as a labor shortage issue.
Ignoring demographic problems risks turning this century bleak unless fundamental changes encourage youth to have children.

Is South Korea truly over?

A Different Perspective: Is Population Decline a Crisis or an Opportunity? #

Population decline clearly appears as a severe social crisis.
However, I propose a slightly different perspective.

With advancements in AI and robotic technologies, and limited planetary resources, population decline could be seen as an opportunity for proactive adaptation to future societies.

Proactive Adaptation to Resource Limits and Job Replacement #

An era is coming when AI and robotics will increasingly replace human labor.

Cognizant and Oxford Economics project that 9% of the US workforce could lose their jobs within the next decade.

Countries with growing populations may face:

A severe imbalance between job losses due to robots and increasing populations
Intensified competition for limited resources (water, food, energy)
Overloaded welfare systems and increased social instability

In contrast, naturally shrinking populations like Korea could:

Maintain balance between declining populations and job availability
Enjoy relatively increased per capita resources
Reduce labor market pressure, enhancing quality of life

Economic Models for Wealth Creation in the AI and Robot Era #

Economic models exist for wealth creation and elderly support even amidst population decline.

1. Government-Led Smart Industry Foundation #

Governments can establish fully automated production systems using AI and robotics, redistributing economic gains to citizens.

Large-scale agricultural exports via Smart Farms: The Netherlands, despite its small size, uses AI and automation to become the world’s second-largest agricultural exporter.
Automated factories (Smart Factories): Adidas built highly automated ‘Speedfactories’ in Germany and the US to maintain competitive manufacturing in high-wage countries. Korea could similarly expand this model.

2. AI-Driven Finance and Data Industry #

Korea can leverage its excellent digital infrastructure to develop high-value AI financial services for global markets.

AI-based asset management and investment: Norway’s sovereign wealth fund manages assets exceeding $1.7 trillion using AI, significantly enriching its citizens.
Global Cloud Computing and Data Centers: Ireland, despite a small population, has become a global data center hub. Korea can similarly become East Asia’s data hub.

3. AI-Based Medical and Healthcare Industry #

Korea can innovate medical services using AI, essential in aging societies, and export these globally.

AI-based diagnostic and treatment technology exports: Israel, a small nation of 9.5 million, excels globally in medical AI technology. Korea can replicate this success.
Elderly Care Robots and Systems: Japan is already developing specialized robots for elderly care, with increasing global demand anticipated.

Importance of Ensuring National Fiscal Stability #

Ensuring the sustainability of national finances is crucial in the context of population decline and aging.

Securing tax revenue through AI and robotics industries: Korea holds the world’s highest rate of industrial robot density per capita, placing it at the forefront of automation technology. Developing appropriate taxation systems for these AI and robotics industries (e.g., robot taxes, automation taxes) can provide new revenue streams to offset decreases in labor income tax.
Efficient management of national assets: Sweden’s AP Funds efficiently manage pension assets, maintaining fiscal stability despite demographic aging. Korea can similarly improve the efficiency of public funds, including the National Pension Fund, by implementing AI-based investment strategies to enhance returns.
Transitioning to an economy focused on high-value industries: Like Denmark or Switzerland, Korea can shift towards managing the economy around high-value industries despite having a smaller population, thereby maintaining high GDP per capita and ensuring a stable tax base.

Maintaining fiscal stability is essential to sustain the quality of elderly welfare and social services, as well as continuous investment in AI and robotic technology in an era of population decline.

Positive Changes from Transitioning to a Low-Population Society #

Population decline can lead to positive changes across society, beyond mere economic considerations.

Population decline provides an ideal opportunity to restructure social systems for the future.

Smart Shrinking Cities: Cities like Leipzig and Dresden in Germany responded to population decline by redesigning themselves into more efficient and sustainable forms.
They implemented a “smart shrinkage” policy, demolishing vacant buildings to create green spaces, concentrating the remaining population in city centers, and returning outskirts to nature.
Separating labor from income: Finland’s basic income experiment explored new income distribution models in anticipation of the AI and robot era. Korea can similarly establish a system that redistributes wealth generated by increased AI and robotic productivity to citizens.

2. Improving Environment and Quality of Life #

Population decline can contribute positively to environmental restoration and individual quality of life.

Opportunity for environmental restoration: Korea has a globally high population density. A declining population could relieve environmental pressure, offering opportunities for ecosystem recovery and environmental restoration.
Improved housing and infrastructure: Reduced urban overcrowding resulting from population decline can create more pleasant and efficient living environments, addressing high housing costs and poor living conditions.

3. Advantages of a Low-Population, High-Tech Society #

In the future, technological capability and efficiency will determine national competitiveness more than population size.

Focused investment in education and talent: Singapore, despite its small population, achieved global competitiveness through concentrated educational investments. Korea can similarly direct intensive educational resources toward a smaller young population, fostering highly skilled talent.
Securing AI technology patents and intellectual property rights: Small countries like Switzerland and Sweden maintain influential positions in the global economy through key technology patents and intellectual property. Korea could similarly capture key AI and robotics technologies to generate royalty income from global markets.

Understanding and participation by social members are just as important as technical solutions in responding to population decline.

Public discourse for social system changes: The Netherlands employs the “Polder Model,” a system of social consensus, to lead significant social changes through dialogue and negotiation among government, businesses, and workers. Korea needs to strengthen similar social dialogue channels in transitioning to an AI and robotic era.
Citizen-led future planning: Finland’s National Foresight program involves citizens directly in designing the nation’s future vision. Korea should establish structured participation systems incorporating diverse citizen voices in designing new social models for a declining population era.
Ensuring intergenerational fairness: Population decline and aging create challenges in intergenerational resource distribution and responsibilities. Sweden regularly publishes an “Intergenerational Fairness Report” assessing policies’ impacts on future generations. Korea also needs social consensus processes to reduce generational conflicts and fairly distribute burdens and benefits.

No matter how advanced technological innovations and system reforms are, they cannot succeed without social understanding and participation. The new vision for the era of population decline should involve citizens, government, and businesses, not just experts.

Korea’s Pioneering Role in Population Decline Societies #

As one of the first countries experiencing rapid population decline, Korea can present practical models for the future many other nations will inevitably face.

Testbed for sustainable social models: Korea can realistically experiment and develop policies to address population decline and aging, along with methods for maintaining social services through AI technology. For example, Japan has been redesigning welfare systems since 2011 through its “Comprehensive Reform of Social Security and Tax”. Korea can create even more innovative models based on these examples.
Research on transitioning to optimal population societies: Data and experiences gained through Korea’s population decline can significantly contribute to global research on sustainable population levels. The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) researches sustainable global populations, and Korea’s experiences could provide valuable insights.

Conclusion: Population Decline as an Opportunity for New Adaptation, Not a Crisis #

Population decline is undoubtedly a challenge, but it also presents an opportunity to proactively adapt to a future world where resources and jobs are limited, and AI and robots replace human labor.
This should be seen not as the “end” but rather as a “new transition.”

The success of this transition depends on three critical factors:

First, innovative productivity improvement through the utilization of AI and robotic technologies.
Second, ensuring national fiscal stability tailored to the new economic environment.
Third, social consensus and public discourse supporting all these changes.

Korea’s experience with population decline will serve as a crucial case study for other countries facing similar situations in the future. How we adapt and innovate in response to these circumstances can provide a realistic roadmap for nations that inevitably will face population decline.

From this perspective, South Korea is not a nation nearing its end but one realistically testing a sustainable model for future societies.

We should leverage AI and robotics to maintain national competitiveness, build fairer and more sustainable systems through social consensus, and secure fiscal stability to enhance welfare and quality of life.
If we achieve this, the crisis of population decline could become a turning point toward a better society.

Transforming the crisis of population decline into an opportunity—isn’t that the direction we should genuinely consider?